Johan Holmgren

• Holmgren, Johan & Hansson, Lisa (2026). Long-run trends in usage, service levels, and governance of public transport in Sweden. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 117(June). doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101758. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  An efficient public transport system providing good service to the public is a key element of sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to describe and explain the long-run development of public transport supply variables in Sweden. The analysis uses data on the supply of vehicle kilometres and fare levels, as well as on the development of the cost of providing services. This is seen in light of structural changes, with regression analysis being used to explain the development of the aforementioned variables and important policy changes. The analysis utilises yearly data from Swedish counties from 1986 to 2022, totalling 756 observations. The findings show a cost increase associated with the policy changes made in 1995 (related to Sweden becoming a member of the EU) and a cost decrease associated with changes made in 2012 (related to a new public transport act). The supply of vehicle kilometres has been positively affected by changes introduced in 1995. Fare levels were reduced due to changes introduced in 1989, when public transport authorities were given the opportunity to use competitive tendering. To our knowledge, this is the first longer comprehensive study to have considered more recent reforms and service changes in the Swedish public transport sector.

• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2025). Governance – the role of public and private actors in sustainable urban transport systems, The Routledge Handbook of Sustainable Urban Transport. Routledge. ISSN 9781003425489. p. 281–292. doi: 10.4324/9781003425489-24. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Given the volume of greenhouse gas emissions that the transport sector in urban areas is producing, cities have an essential responsibility in the response to climate change. Public authorities on the local level have been given a central role in stimulating a shift from a car-centric transport system to a more sustainable mobility system. Within this setting, there is a clear emphasis on stakeholder collaboration and coordination between public and private actors and organisations. This is further strengthened by global agreements, such as the Paris Agreement and the UN sustainability goals, that clearly point in the direction of increased actor coordination. Governance is a concept that describes a shift in policy making, in which networks of actors take a greater role in decision-making processes. Both public and private actors and organisations play an essential part but may hold different interests and roles in policy making. Governance can take place both horizontally, between public and private actors, and vertically between various government levels. It explains policy making based on various actor roles and challenges that come with it. The aim of the chapter is to introduce the reader to the transport governance perspective and its link to public–private ownership and delivery. The focus will be on the transition to a sustainable urban transport system and models of governance related to this will be presented. As a complement to existing governance literature, the chapter will also draw on a discussion of market structure and market performance, inspired by the structure–conduct–performance perspective. The existing transport governance literature has had a primary focus on public authorities and their complexity when governing. Several studies have recognised that governing authorities have the power to set structures for the private sector actors in which they are to operate in. For example, public authorities may use hard regulation (for example, zero emission zones); economic instruments (for example, setting low emission criteria when purchasing public transport services) or softer incentives (for example, funding smart mobility pilots). A critique that can be raised to the governance literature is that it recognises that private actors have a role in such governing processes; however, it often treats the private sector (firms) as passive respondents and ignores its diversity, as well as how they may act on various markets and adjust to various initiatives. Governing authorities operate on multiple playing fields within an urban setting. For example, the freight sector holds a market structure with few regulatory boundaries and a strong competitive market with various firm structures. While the public transport sector holds a tender-based structure where few international firms compete for contracts. When public authorities are introducing sustainability targets and regulations within a city, firms may react to such regulations differently, some may adjust their operation to meet future needs, while others may seek other markets. To understand the challenges sustainable urban transport stands in front, the governance perspective needs to further address the link between public and private ownership and how these interactions respond to various policy changes in various markets within a city. We believe that this chapter will bring robustness to the understanding of transport governance and further develop the discussion on how this perspective can linked to policy changes related to sustainability.

• Tveter, Eivind & Holmgren, Johan (2024). Statistical power and productivity effects of transport investments: A critical review. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 105. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2024.101430. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Numerous studies have attempted to identify how transport investments affect the overall economy. The results of these studies vary considerably. This variation has been explained by factors such as differences in estimation methods as well as differences among countries and sectors. This paper considers another explanation: low statistical power. By revisiting a previous meta-analysis, this paper shows that accounting for statistical power substantially reduces the estimate. Accounting for statistical power also reduces the relevance of estimation methods as well as country and sectoral differences. These results indicate that a larger data set than typically available is required to overcome the issue of low power. The implication of this is that the existing and, perhaps, future studies using macro data are of limited use to policymakers.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2023). Causal relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. In Button, Kenneth (Eds.), Airlines and Developing Countries. Emerald Group Publishing Limited. ISSN 9781804558614. p. 63–88. doi: 10.1108/S2212-160920230000010005. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is important for stakeholders to understand the driving forces of the aviation industry and economic wellbeing and how these sectors are interconnected. This chapter studies the relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. It is framed as a causal linkage considering the priority investment sector that enhances the sustainable wellbeing of the society. Analyses were conducted for 38 African countries using time series data from 1981 to 2019. The results show that causal relationships are heterogeneous and context-specific. Four patterns of causal relationships between air travel demand and the economy are identified: unidirectional causality in either directions; bidirectional causality; and indeterminate causal direction. However, the causal direction in any economic or policy-related matter may change with political reforms and changes to economic policy.

• Tveter, Eivind; Holmgren, Johan & Bråthen, Svein (2023). Time-varying travel demand elasticities and second-best road tolls. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. ISSN 0022-5258. 57(2), p. 131–150. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We estimate shortrun generalised cost elasticities using a case study where high road tolls have been removed, and assess how these elasticities vary through out the day and the week. The characteristics of this case enable us to iso late the demand effect because there are no alter native routes. Our results show that the elasticity is twice as high at the week end as during the work ing week, with stable effects through out the days in the work ing week. We also use the results to illustrate a use of time varying tolls to maximise welfare (second best road tolls) under a financial constraint.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Eric, Tchouamou Njoya; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2021). Effects of African aviation liberalisation on economic freedom, air connectivity and related economic consequences. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 110(September), p. 204–214. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.06.002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article investigates the effects of air transport liberalisation on economic freedom and air connectivity, and the extended effects on economic development. A PLS path modelling estimator, applied to annual data for 52 countries over the period 2011–2019, shows that aviation liberalisation promotes economic freedom and improves air connectivity. The results also reveal that the economic contribution of air transport liberalisation varies across African countries and regions, relative to their levels of economic freedom and air connectivity. It is concluded that removing barriers to trade using air transport, combined with institutions that support economic freedom and the quality of air connectivity, may foster countries’ economic development. Keywords: liberalisation, economic freedom, air connectivity, economic development, Africa

• Holmgren, Johan (2020). The effect of public transport quality on car ownership : a source of wider benefits? Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 83(November), p. 1–6. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100957. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper discusses the potential impact of public transport service levels on car ownership and it is discussed whether this connection can be seen as a source of wider economic benefits that would ensue from improving the public transport system. To study the interrelationship between public transport demand and car ownership, a model is estimated using data from 21 Swedish counties from 1986 to 2015. It is concluded that car ownership is affected by the service levels in the public transport system, and that this effect results in additional benefits from improving the public transport system. Keywords: public transport, car ownership, cost-benefit analysis, wider economic benefits, demand, supply

• Holmgren, Johan & Ivehammar, Pernilla (2020). Mode choice in home-to-work travel in mid-size towns: The competitiveness of public transport when bicycling and walking are viable options. Transportation Research Procedia. 48, p. 1635–1643. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2020.08.204. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is widely recognized that the transport system contributes significantly to current environmental problems such as global warming, as well as to health issues caused by emissions and lack of exercise. For the transport system to contribute to sustainable development, the link between economic growth and growth in motorized transport must be broken. Since high population densities and shorter distances provide greater potential for efficient public transport as well as for walking and biking, the highest potential for change is in urban areas. As a large proportion of urban travel consists of home-to-work travel, such travel will be our focus in this paper. More specifically, this paper aims to analyze the factors that determine mode choice in situations where bicycle and walking are competitive options and to contribute to the knowledge of the conditions under which public transport can be a competitive alternative to the private car. The results of this study could be used to devise policies for reducing car dependency in urban areas. The results show that even if it is possible to attract new passengers to public transport through changes in the public transport system (i.e., reduced fares or reduced travel time) few of these new passengers will be shifting from private car use. To achieve a shift from private car to walking, bicycling or bus riding, such policies must be combined with restrictions (and/or cost increases) on car use. Keywords: Mode choice; Public transport; Car; Bicycling; Walking.

• Merkel, Axel Patrick & Holmgren, Johan (2020). On track towards improved regional development? – Impacts of the Svealand rail line on labour earnings in the Mälaren region. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. ISSN 1567-7133. 20(1), p. 17–33. doi: 10.18757/ejtir.2020.20.1.3878. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper studies the impacts on productivity following an investment in regional high-speed rail in the Mälaren region in Sweden. It uses wage earnings as a measure of productivity and proposes to capture agglomeration effects by measuring changes in effective labour force density induced by the transport improvement across municipalities in the region. This change in effective labour force density is then used as a continuous measure of treatment, in order to estimate the effect of the Svealand line introduction on labour earnings. While the transport improvement had a large impact on the connectivity and commuting patterns in affected municipalities, we find estimates of wage elasticities with respect to agglomeration that are in line with or smaller than average values from previous literature. The productivity effects, estimated over a ten-year time period, are shown to be rather modest and concentrated to the regions whose connectivity to the greater Stockholm area was directly affected. We also find that the main results do not materialize when a much shorter time period is used for analysis, indicating that a rather long adjustment time needs to occur before any effects can be seen.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2020). Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality. Journal of Transport Geography. ISSN 0966-6923. 86(June), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102771. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub. Keywords: air transport demand, economic development, cointegration, causality analysis, sub-Saharan Africa

• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2018). Cost effect of reorganising : a study of special transport services. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 69(September), p. 453–459. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2018.04.008. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is a policy objective in Sweden that all citizens should have access to the transport system. The public sector is required to provide special transport services (STS) for those who are unable to use regular public transport or private car. Between 1999 and 2014, the yearly cost per STS trip increased by 66%. This is problematic, considering the fact that the population is growing older and an increased demand for STS may be expected in the future. It is therefore important to understand the cost structure of STS operations. Although STS has been organised in various ways in Sweden, the trend is to transfer responsibility from the municipal level to the regional level. This paper examines the cost structure of STS in Sweden to determine whether the transfer of responsibility has had an impact on costs. It is concluded that transferring the procurement of STS from the local to the regional level decreases marginal cost but increases fixed cost, thus lowering costs for municipalities with high levels of production and increasing costs for municipalities with low production levels. Transferring the administration of STS permits is found to have the opposite effect: it lowers fixed costs but increases marginal costs.

• Holmgren, Johan (2018). Using cost–benefit analysis to evaluate city logistics initiatives : an application to freight consolidation in small- and mid-sized urban areas. In Taniguchi, Eiichi & Thompson, Russell G. (Ed.), City logistics 2 : modeling and planning initiatives. ISTE. ISSN 9781119495116. p. 271–290. doi: 10.1002/9781119425526.ch17. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2018). The effects of using different output measures in efficiency analysis of public transport operations. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). ISSN 2210-5395. 28(September), p. 12–22. doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2018.02.006. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  There is growing interest in measuring efficiency and productivity in the public sector. Most commonly this is done using data envelopment analysis (DEA) or Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to determine the level of (in)efficiency of different decision-making units. These methods have also been applied to public transport. However, in this context their application presents some problems, including how to define what is produced and how that should be measured. Several options have been suggested including vehicle-kilometres, number of trips, number of passenger-kilometres, and scores in passenger satisfaction surveys. The primary aim of this paper is to discuss how production of public transport should be defined and measured in efficiency studies. It is argued that output should be measured by number of trips and vehicle-kilometres as these together represent consumers' willingness to pay for public transport services. A proposed model for evaluating the efficiency of public transport operations is presented and estimated. This model is evaluated by comparing its results to those obtained from competing models estimated using the same data from 27 Swedish counties from 1986 to 2015. The data are used to estimate stochastic cost frontier models and it is concluded that the models using only vehicle-kilometres or only passenger trips tend to underestimate efficiency compared to a model using both at the same time. It is also concluded that smaller models (using only a single output measure) result in different rankings of the decision-making units.

• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2017). Reducing dependency on special transport services through public transport. Transportation Research Procedia. 25, p. 2450–2460. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.263. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  One of the official transport policy objectives in Sweden is that all citizens should have access to the transport system. The public sector is therefore required by law to provide special transport services (STS) for those who are unable to use public transport or private car. STS is often provided through public procurement of taxi services. As a response to new legislation in 2000, there have been developments in the public transport sector, making buses, trains and other parts of the system more accessible to people with disabilities. These developments have also been driven by other objectives, such as reducing costs in STS by transferring passengers from STS to regular public transport. However, so far, there is little evidence of the effects of public transport access on STS usage. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of public transport system design on the demand for STS permits and usage. The main focus is on how different aspects of the general public transport system (e.g. price and supply levels) affect the demand for STS permits and STS usage per permit. In addition, the analysis will control for socioeconomic and geographical variables. It is concluded that the price and supply level of public transport do affect STS travel. Public transport price affects the demand for permits as well as the demand for trips from permit holders. Public transport service level only has an effect on the demand for permits. Keywords: special transport services, public transport, policy, price, service, accessibility, local government, modal shift, mobility

• Holmgren, Johan & Merkel, Axel Patrick (2017). Much ado about nothing? : a meta-analysis of the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 63(August), p. 13–26. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2017.05.001. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Investing in infrastructure is often seen as an important part of economic policy, at the regional, national as well as international level. Investing in infrastructure is often presented as a solution to a number of problems such as unemployment, depopulation of rural areas and low economic activity. A number of studies have tried to estimate the effects on production from investing in infrastructure. The aim of this study is therefore to provide a systematic analysis of previous studies of this relationship. For that purpose, a meta-analysis of 776 estimates of elasticity of production with respect to infrastructure, was performed. The estimated effect (elasticity of production) of investing in infrastructure varies from −0.06 to 0.52. The effects appear to vary depending on the type of infrastructure in with the investment is made as well as between industries. It is also found that the estimated effects exhibiting high precision, are clustered around zero. This is to say that the higher the reliability of the estimate, the closer it is to zero. Keywords: economic growth, infrastructure, investment, meta-analysis, productivity, publication bias, public funds, public investments

• Merkel, Axel Patrick & Holmgren, Johan (2017). Dredging the depths of knowledge: Efficiency analysis in the maritime port sector. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 60, p. 63–74. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.08.010. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Maritime port efficiency is a research area that has received considerable attention in recent years. While the accumulated empirical evidence concerning the drivers of port efficiency is large, there has not been any attempt at systematically assessing the causes of (in)efficiency through quantitative meta-analysis. This study therefore uses a compounded dataset of port efficiency estimates from 52 studies and regresses these estimates on port and country characteristics, while controlling for study-specific and methodological effects. Surveying the literature, we find that there is a lack of attention paid to the user side of port service production, which has crucial implications for the interpretation of efficiency estimates. At the cross-country level, we find a negative relationship between GDP per capita and estimated port efficiency, as well as a negative relationship between intra-port competition and estimated efficiency. We discuss the interpretation of these findings in the context of partial production functions, and argue that a large portion of the applied methods do not capture substitution between producer and user inputs. We also find that the ratio of military spending to GDP is positively related to estimated port efficiency, while a higher degree of product concentration in trade flows is associated with lower levels of estimated efficiency. Keywords: benchmarking, data envelopment analysis, meta-analysis, port efficiency, stochastic frontier analysis

• Holmgren, Johan & Weinholt, Åsa (2016). The influence of organisational changes on cost efficiency in fire and rescue services. International Journal of Emergency Management. ISSN 1471-4825. 12(4), p. 343–365. doi: 10.1504/IJEM.2016.079848. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Fire and rescue services (FRS) in Sweden have recently undergone organisational changes aiming at improving service quality and efficiency. Among those changes are an increased number of formalised cooperations between FRSs, increased collaboration with other sectors, changes in the structure of rescue teams, and an increase in the tasks performed by the services. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether these policy changes have resulted in increased cost efficiency in the Swedish FRS. We used stochastic frontier analysis of annual data from Swedish municipalities, taking into account contextual differences. No evidence of improved efficiency in the FRS could be found. The policy changes implemented have not had the desired effects, and most of the policy variables tested for inclusion in the model were not significant. The results also show great variation in efficiency between FRSs which could be used for benchmarking and basis for further analysis.

• Jansson, Jan Owen; Holmgren, Johan & Ljungberg, Anders (2015). Pricing public transport services. In Nash, Chris (Eds.), Handbook of research methods and applications in transport economics and policy. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9780857937926. p. 260–308. doi: 10.4337/9780857937933.00022. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter aims at outlining pricing policy for public transport that maximizes the social surplus, that is, the sum of the producer surplus and the consumer surplus, while internalizing possible system-external costs. It starts by presenting the door-to-door transport cost as a key concept in price theory for public transport, and then first principles of optimal pricing valid for all modes of public transport are laid down. These principles are applied to urban (short-distance) public transport in sections 13.2–13.5 and to inter-urban (long-distance) public transport in section 13.6. Section 13.7 summarizes the methodological conclusions.

• Holmgren, Johan (2014). A strategy for increased public transport usage – The effects of implementing a welfare maximizing policy. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 48, p. 221–226. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.046. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  For a long time public transport has experienced a struggle against rising costs and increasing car ownership. So far, public transport appears to be on the losing side in terms of market shares. The aim if this paper is to investigate if a different policy could result in higher public transport usage and improved social welfare. In order to achieve this, a model, explaining public transport usage, public transport supply and costs, is estimated. The model is then used in order to simulate the outcome of an alternative policy of social welfare maximization. It is found that the current policy of the Swedish transport is not efficient in terms of maximizing welfare. In 2011, public transport fares should have been lower in 20 of 21 counties and the supply of vehicle kilometres should have been higher in 17 of 21 counties. Implementing a welfare maximizing policy would have increased the number of trips per capita by 17.2% in 2011 and by an average of 6.7% for the period 1986-2011.

• Holmgren, Johan & Ivehammar, Pernilla (2014). Making headway towards better understanding of service frequency valuations: a study of how the relative valuation of train service frequency and in-vehicle time vary with traveller characteristics. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS. ISSN 0303-5247. 41, p. 109–130. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  On-going urbanization has led to greater distances between homes and workplaces and more long-distance commuting, increasing the need for efficient inter-urban transport infrastructure. For sustainability, trains are preferred to private cars. Two key variables affecting door-to-door train travel time are in-vehicle time (IVT) and headway ; however, there is often a trade-off between speed and frequency in a system. If different categories of travellers value IVT and headway differently, their proportions on a route should affect traffic planning. Optimal system design might differ between routes carrying many commuters and routes carrying mainly passengers on single private or business trips. Knowledge of differences in relative valuations of headway versus IVT should therefore affect railway system design. We investigate whether the relative values of headway versus IVT differ between inter- urban commuting by train and single inter-urban trips by train, whilst also examining differences between socioeconomic groups. Stated choice (SC) data from 580 Swedish respondents are used in estimation. Individuals actually commuting and individuals not commuting but imagining that they are when answering the SC questions are asked about their preferences for headway versus IVT. Commuters are estimated to value increased headway 19 percentage points more than do non-commuters. Young people (under age 21 years) value headway more than do older people while people with children value headway less than do the childless.

• Holmgren, Johan (2013). An analysis of the determinants of local public transport demand focusing the effects of income changes. European Transport Research Review. ISSN 1867-0717. 5, p. 101–107. doi: 10.1007/s12544-013-0094-0. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Purpose: In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems caused by traffic, there need to be a clear understanding of how, and to whatextent, different factors affect demand. There still seem to be some confusion regarding some key relationships, one of them being the effect of income on public transport demand. The purpose of this article is therefore to provide empirical estimates of how different factors, including price and car ownership (although income being the main issue), affect the demand for local public transport. Methods: In order to achieve the aim of the study, an econometric FD-model, allowing for unobserved effects, was estimated using panel data from Swedish counties from1986 to 2001. Results: The short-run (direct) elasticity with respect to fare, vehicle-kilometres, income and car ownership were found to be −0,4, 0,55, 0,34, and −1,37 respectively. However, income affects public transport demand directly, and through its effect on car ownership, these effects works in opposite direction. Combining these, it is found that total income effect is close to zero. Conclusions: It is concluded that, although the findings of several previous studies suggests that demand for public transport might be falling with increased income, there is no evidence of such effects in this study even when the full effect of changes in income (including changes in car ownership) is taken into account.

• Holmgren, Johan (2013). The efficiency of public transport operations – An evaluation using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 39, p. 50–57. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.023. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of public transport operations undertaken in Swedish counties by the Public Transport Authorities (PTA), taking into account the substantial differences in operating conditions between counties. The analysis will be performed using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with annual data from 1986 to 2009 for 26 Swedish counties. The analysis shows how the efficiency of the individual counties has changed over time. The results are used to provide a ranking (in terms of efficiency) of the Swedish public transport authorities that can provide a basis for benchmarking. It is concluded that the efficiency of the public transport providers in all counties fell during the observed time period. Defining cost efficiency as the ratio of minimum cost to observed cost, the overall (average) cost efficiency for the industry fell from 85.7% in the eighties to 60.4% for the period from 2000 to 2009. Possible explanations for the development include increased emphasis on route density as well as higher environmental and safety requirements.

• Holmgren, Johan (2012). Urban Structure as Determinant of Short Distance Goods Transport. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 39, p. 582–591. doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.03.132. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2012). Urban freight transport initiatives - Knowing when it is worth the cost. In Longhurst, James W. S. & Brebbia, Carlos Alberto (Ed.), Urban transport XVIII : urban transport and the environment in the 21st century. WIT Press. ISSN 9781845645809. p. 481–492. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2011). Bypassing public procurement regulation: a study of rationality in local decision making. Regulation & Governance. ISSN 1748-5983. 5, p. 368–385. doi: 10.1111/j.1748-5991.2011.01110.x. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Using private contractors through procurement is common in most public sector areas. Despite the benefits of procurement, officials are sometimes tempted to circumvent procurement regulations. The aim of the article is to examine strategies used by local governmental decision makers to bypass procurement regulations, analyzing the rationality underlying their actions. Interviews, court documents, municipal documents, and articles describing the actions of Swedish municipal officials concerning special transport service (STS) procurements were collected and analyzed. In a case in which rural municipalities lost regular taxi services after STS procurement, we demonstrate how decisions were driven by pressure from the public and local interest groups, making municipal officials deviate from procurement regulations in striving to secure the existence of regular taxi services. One outcome was that local businesses were given preferential treatment, violating regulations and reducing economic efficiency.

• Holmgren, Johan (2010). Putting our money to good use – Can we attract more passengers without increasing the subsidies? Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 29, p. 256–260. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2010.07.032. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan; Jansson, Jan Owen & Ljungberg, Anders (2008). Public transport in towns – Inevitably on the decline? Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 23, p. 65–74. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2008.10.011. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2007). Meta-Analysis of Public Transport Demand. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 41, p. 1021–1035. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2007.06.003. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities. One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous. Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous. In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.

• Holmgren, Johan (2005). Demand and Supply of Public Transport – The Problem of Cause and Effect. In Hensher, David A. (Eds.), Competition and ownership in land passenger transport : selected refereed papers from the 8th International Conference (Thredbo 8). Elsevier. ISSN 9780080445809. p. 405–421. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Holmgren, Johan & Torvik, Egil H. (2023). Ikke lenger relevant for høgskolen. [Journal]. Romsdals Budstikke. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan & Mikkelsen, Solveig (2023). Møreforsking kutter i fagområder. — Et tap for oss, sier Høgskolen i Molde. [Journal]. Khrono.no. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan & Solenes, Oskar (2022). Innføring av skolepenger er dårlig distriktspolitikk. Khrono.no. ISSN 1894-8995. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan & Hoff, Karoline Louise (2022). The impact of reduced travel time on public sector productivity. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2022). Transport and Urban Development. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2019). Car ownership induced changes in public transport demand – a potential source of wider benefits of improving the public transport system. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan & Ivehammar, Pernilla (2019). Mode choice in mid-sized urban areas. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2017). Cost effect of reorganizing – a study of special transport services. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2017). USING COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE CITY LOGISTICS INITIATIVES. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  One of the most commonly discussed measures to reduce environmental impact from urban deliveries is the introduction of urban consolidation centres. This paper argues that Cost-Benefit Analysis, to a greater extent than today, should be used for evaluating such measures. When performing the analysis, one important issue to consider is if there might be costs arising in other parts of the distribution system when introducing a consolidation centre in a town. In an application of Cost-Benefit Analysis it is concluded that the benefits of introducing a consolidation centre in the Swedish town Linköping is unlikely to exceed costs.

• Haugen, Kjetil K.; Heen, Knut Peder; Guvåg, Bjørn; Oterhals, Geir; Holmgren, Johan & Hauge, Olav [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2017). Fra toppen av Haugen : 100/11. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2016). God kollektivtrafik för minskat färdtjänstberoende. Full text in Research Archive
• Haugen, Kjetil K. & Holmgren, Johan (2016). Fra toppen av Haugen : studiebarometeret – atter en gang. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansson, Lisa & Holmgren, Johan (2016). Reducing dependency on special transport services through public transport. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2014). Evaluating the effects of organizational changes and private sector involvement on cost efficiency in fire and rescue services. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2013). A strategy for increasing public transport market share: an investigation of an alternative development. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2011). Estimating and evaluating the efficiency of public transport operations. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2011). Short Distance Goods Transports - the effects of Urban Structure. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2009). Can we attract more passengers without increasing the subsidies? Full text in Research Archive
• Holmgren, Johan (2003). Demand and Supply of Public Transport - A Study of Cause and Effect. Full text in Research Archive
• Smedås, Einar Johann Johnstad & Holmgren, Johan (2025). Assessing the feasibility and timing of satisfiying the International Maritime Organization's 2030 decarbonization goal. Høgskolen i Molde - Vitenskapelig høgskole i logistikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Smørdal, Sunniva & Holmgren, Johan (2025). Economic efficiency improvements from implementing a congestion tax in Molde. Høgskolen i Molde - Vitenskapelig høgskole i logistikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Nkesah, Stephen Kwasi; Hanssen, Thor-Erik Sandberg; Solvoll, Gisle & Holmgren, Johan (2025). Toward more sustainable road freight transport. Nord universitet. ISSN 9788294093076. Full text in Research Archive
• Svensson, Tomas & Holmgren, Johan (2012). Kollektivtrafik som verktyg för regional utveckling – en kunskapsöversikt. Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Syftet med rapporten är att förbättra kunskaps- och beslutsunderlag för en effektivare användning av kollektivtrafiken som utvecklingsverktyg. Uppdraget baseras på kollektivtrafikrelaterad ekonomisk forskning med fokus på lokal och regional utveckling. Kunskapsöversikten utgår i första hand från forskning om kollektivtrafikens samhällsekonomi och planeringsmässiga dimensioner. Forskningsresultaten har valts ut med utgångspunkt från det ökade behovet av kunskapsunderlag och planeringsmodeller för integrerade regionala och lokala kollektivtrafiksystem. Vi har tolkat uppdraget utifrån de framväxande regionernas behov av tydligare strategier för hur kollektivtrafiken kan användas som verktyg för regional utveckling. Kollektivtrafiken kan kopplas till drivkrafter för den ekonomiska utvecklingen vad gäller transportmöjligheter, mobilitet och tillgänglighet generellt, men också mer direkt till de egenskaper som kollektivtrafiken har i jämförelse med övriga färdmedel. Kollektivtrafiken har hög kapacitet och ett begränsat ytanspråk vilket gör att den kan användas för att åstadkomma kluster med agglomerationsfördelar och för att realisera skalekonomier och gynnsamma produktionsförutsättningar för den växande tjänstesektorn. Det är vår uppfattning att det behövs en betydligt starkare strategisk dimension i planeringen av kollektivtrafiken. Det avgörande är inriktningen för trafiken och hur kollektivtrafiken ska användas som verktyg för regionens utveckling. I planeringen kan flera olika förändringar/ kvalitetsnivåer utvärderas och perspektivet måste vara bredare än att enbart fokusera på investeringar. Av diskussionen i rapporten följer att den rumsliga dimensionen blir alltmer betydelsefull för den ekonomiska utvecklingen. Konsekvenser för stads- och tätortsutveckling, regionala sammanhang och hur markanvändning och transportsystem samverkar bör lyftas in i planeringens centrum. Oavsett nivån i resurstilldelningen till kollektivtrafiken är det angeläget att de resurser som förbrukas gör största möjliga nytta. Om det är positiva konsekvenser för en hållbar ekonomisk utveckling som prioriteras, bör planeringen ställas om i den riktning som diskuteras i rapporten.

• Holmgren, Johan (2008). Studies in local public transport demand. Linköping University. ISSN 9789173937597. Full text in Research Archive

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