Tassew Dufera Tolcha

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Njoya, Eric Tchouamou & Christidis, Panayotis (2025). Exploring the determinants of domestic air travel across Africa. Journal of Air Transport Management. ISSN 0969-6997. 131(2026)(March ). doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102924. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study examines the determinants of domestic air travel demand within African countries, a region underrepresented in existing literature, which has predominantly focused on international routes or domestic travel in other continents. Using a gravity model, the study provides a comprehensive analysis that incorporates socio-economic variables and service-related factors. The findings indicate that domestic air travel demand is significantly influenced by socio-economic factors; specifically, larger educated populations and higher GDP per capita are positively associated with travel demand. The effect of government ownership of airlines on passenger demand is inconclusive: state ownership positively influences demand in Algeria, Ethiopia, and Morocco, but has a negative impact in Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria. Service-related aspects also play a crucial role: higher flight frequencies, lower airfares, the presence of low-cost carriers (LCCs), and better connectivity positively influence domestic travel demand. These findings vary across countries, reflecting the diverse economic and infrastructural landscapes of Africa. The study highlights the importance of economic and infrastructural development in boosting domestic air travel across the continent. It suggests that policies aimed at supporting LCCs, enhancing airport connectivity, and promoting economic growth could effectively stimulate domestic air travel.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2024). Competition in the African air transport market. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives (TRIP). 27(September). doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2024.101209. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The air transport market in Africa is regulated and viable for designated carriers. Although there are some sub-regional liberalizations, airlines primarily compete based on the specifications of bilateral air service agreements. However, this competitive landscape has not been thoroughly investigated. This study examines market concentration in the African aviation industry and explores its impact on the output of African airlines. The competition was measured at the airport level using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Panel data were drawn from 54 countries, 339 airports, and 221 airline groups for the period 2015–2019. Kernel density estimation shows that the region’s market for air transport services is fragmented, with many small airlines. Strong competition is more prevalent at larger hub airports, airports near tourist destinations, and major airports far from larger African hubs, while markets tend to be concentrated where dominant and protected flag carriers operate. Competition is also low or limited at smaller airports offering limited flights. The results of panel regression analysis reveal a nonlinear relationship between market concentration and airline output, as strong competition may limit airlines’ output, and high concentration may promote a dominant airline or alliance that may hinder other airlines from entering or remaining in the market.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2023). Causal relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. In Button, Kenneth (Eds.), Airlines and Developing Countries. Emerald Group Publishing Limited. ISSN 9781804558614. p. 63–88. doi: 10.1108/S2212-160920230000010005. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is important for stakeholders to understand the driving forces of the aviation industry and economic wellbeing and how these sectors are interconnected. This chapter studies the relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. It is framed as a causal linkage considering the priority investment sector that enhances the sustainable wellbeing of the society. Analyses were conducted for 38 African countries using time series data from 1981 to 2019. The results show that causal relationships are heterogeneous and context-specific. Four patterns of causal relationships between air travel demand and the economy are identified: unidirectional causality in either directions; bidirectional causality; and indeterminate causal direction. However, the causal direction in any economic or policy-related matter may change with political reforms and changes to economic policy.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2023). The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery. Journal of Air Transport Management. ISSN 0969-6997. 108(May), p. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102380. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The COVID-19 pandemic has raised air transport stakeholders' concerns about the state of the market, the potential timing of recovery, and recouping long-haul traffic. Passengers’ travel confidence must be restored, and air travel safety awareness raised. This paper estimates the immediate and long-term effects of COVID-19 on air transport markets and forecasts timescales for recovery of the markets for domestic and international flights in nine African countries. Intervention analysis and SARIMAX are employed for the analysis, using monthly time-series data from August 2003 to December 2021. The empirical results show that air transport is significantly elastic to the pandemic. It is forecast that air transport recovery may take around 28 months for domestic flights and 34 months for international flights, starting from 2020. The simulation analysis suggests that passenger flights may rebound to pre-crisis levels between 2022 and 2023. In general, the pandemic-induced fluctuations in the aviation market and the nature of the rebound may be considered to be part of a cyclical process rather than a structural change. Keywords: air transport, COVID-19, Africa, aviation recovery

• Takele, Tesfaye B & Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2021). Optimal transit corridors for Ethiopia. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management. ISSN 2310-8789. 15, p. 1–11. doi: 10.4102/jtscm.v15i0.567. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background: Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea, a former province, gained independence. Its imports and exports by sea are now sent via neighbouring coastal states, mainly Djibouti, and it needs to ensure sustainable access to multiple transit corridors. Objective: This article aims to evaluate alternative transit corridors to Ethiopia in terms of basic port infrastructure, and logistics costs. The findings provide insights to inform policy on securing reliable maritime access to the country. Method: This study adopts a case study approach by using secondary data to evaluate alternative transit corridors. Following a critical review of theoretical and empirical literature, descriptive statistics are presented using tables, graphs and charts. Results: Low-cost, high-capacity and high-frequency global maritime freight trade is easier through Djibouti than through Mombasa in Kenya or Port Sudan, owing to its better liner shipping connectivity. Thus, Ethiopia should continue to import containerised cargo through the Port of Djibouti. However, direct access to the sea is also important for national defence and security. Conclusion: Ethiopia should therefore secure access through multiple ports to safeguard national security, regardless of economic feasibility. This can be realised by directing break-bulk, dry bulk and petroleum products through ports in Sudan and Kenya. In addition, particular emphasis should be given to seaports closest to the country’s economic centre, such as Berbera in Somaliland and Asseb and Massawa in Eritrea. Keywords: landlocked; transit corridor; infrastructure development; container shipping; dry bulk shipping; logistics cost.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Eric, Tchouamou Njoya; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2021). Effects of African aviation liberalisation on economic freedom, air connectivity and related economic consequences. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 110(September), p. 204–214. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.06.002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article investigates the effects of air transport liberalisation on economic freedom and air connectivity, and the extended effects on economic development. A PLS path modelling estimator, applied to annual data for 52 countries over the period 2011–2019, shows that aviation liberalisation promotes economic freedom and improves air connectivity. The results also reveal that the economic contribution of air transport liberalisation varies across African countries and regions, relative to their levels of economic freedom and air connectivity. It is concluded that removing barriers to trade using air transport, combined with institutions that support economic freedom and the quality of air connectivity, may foster countries’ economic development. Keywords: liberalisation, economic freedom, air connectivity, economic development, Africa

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2020). Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality. Journal of Transport Geography. ISSN 0966-6923. 86(June), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102771. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub. Keywords: air transport demand, economic development, cointegration, causality analysis, sub-Saharan Africa

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• Isah, Aliyu Buhari; Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Njoya, Eric Tchouamou (2026). Aviation Liberalization and Consumer Welfare Dynamics in Africa. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2026). To av tre HiMolde-studenter møter opp til høyst ett emne – hva ligger bak valget? doi: https:/panorama.himolde.no/2026/06/09/to-av-tre-himolde-studenter-moter-opp-til-hoyst-ett-emne-hva-ligger-bak-valget/. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Aravazhi, Agaraoli (2025). Evaluating the dual dimensions of airline performance : operational efficiency and passenger sentiment. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2024). Navigating post-COVID-19 skies : examining the operational resilience of European airlines. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2023). The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Njoya, Eric Tchouamou (2023). Determinants of domestic air travel demand in African countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2020). Effects of aviation liberalisation and levels of democracy on air connectivity and related economic consequences : evidence from Africa. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Bråthen, Svein (2018). Air transport demand and economic growth in Ethiopia. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Bråthen, Svein (2018). The link between air transport demand and economic growth in South Africa. Full text in Research Archive
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2022). Essays on air transport and economic development: Cases from African countries. Molde University College - Specialized University in Logistics. ISSN 9788279623205. Full text in Research Archive

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