LOG904-201 Scenario Planning and Preparedness in Logistics and Supply Chain Management (Autumn 2026)

The course introduces scenario planning as a strategic approach for dealing with uncertainty in logistics and supply chain management. It combines perspectives from futures studies, strategic planning, and risk management to explore how organizations can prepare for high-impact and rapidly changing conditions.

The first part of the course establishes a general understanding of decision-making under uncertainty and the challenges this creates for logistics and supply chain strategy. This includes discussions on how complexity, limited information, and organizational dynamics influence strategic choices and preparedness. The second part presents key concepts from scenario planning and foresight, including different types of scenarios, their purposes, and their role in supporting strategic agility and resilience.

The main part of the seminar focuses on scenario planning methodology. Students work through the core steps of scenario development, from mapping the system and identifying key drivers to constructing scenario narratives and reflecting on implications for preparedness.

The final part introduces recent developments in scenario planning, including tailored approaches for different organizational contexts and emerging methods that support scenario generation and analysis. Strengths, limitations, and typical pitfalls of scenario planning are discussed, along with how it can be integrated with other decision-support tools in logistics and supply chain management.

Knowledge:

• has advanced knowledge of scenario planning as a strategic tool in logistics and supply chain management
• understands the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and how these concepts influence strategic decisions
• has knowledge of contemporary approaches to scenario planning, including creativity‑enhancing methods and AI‑supported techniques

Skills:

• can apply the scenario planning methodology to a logistics or supply chain case
• can identify key drivers and critical uncertainties in complex systems
• can reflect critically on methodological strengths, weaknesses, and typical pitfalls in scenario planning

General competence:

• can contribute to strategic discussions in organizations facing uncertainty

can facilitate group-based scenario development processes

Examination:

• Form of assessment: Written school exam
• Proportion: 100 %
• Duration: 2 hours
• Grouping: Individually
• Grading scale: Letter (A - F)
• Support material: During the seminar, students will produce an informal project report (individually and/or in groups) documenting their case‑based scenario planning process. The written school exam will build on this work and ask students to elaborate/reflect further on selected aspects of their case project. The students’ project reports may be used as support material during the exam.