Tassew Dufera Tolcha

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2023). Causal relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. I Button, Kenneth (Red.), Airlines and Developing Countries. Emerald Group Publishing Limited. ISSN 978-1-80455-861-4. s. 63–88. doi: 10.1108/S2212-160920230000010005. Vis sammendrag

  It is important for stakeholders to understand the driving forces of the aviation industry and economic wellbeing and how these sectors are interconnected. This chapter studies the relationships between the African aviation industry and the economy. It is framed as a causal linkage considering the priority investment sector that enhances the sustainable wellbeing of the society. Analyses were conducted for 38 African countries using time series data from 1981 to 2019. The results show that causal relationships are heterogeneous and context-specific. Four patterns of causal relationships between air travel demand and the economy are identified: unidirectional causality in either directions; bidirectional causality; and indeterminate causal direction. However, the causal direction in any economic or policy-related matter may change with political reforms and changes to economic policy.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2023). The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery. Journal of Air Transport Management. ISSN 0969-6997. 108(May), s. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102380. Vis sammendrag

  The COVID-19 pandemic has raised air transport stakeholders' concerns about the state of the market, the potential timing of recovery, and recouping long-haul traffic. Passengers’ travel confidence must be restored, and air travel safety awareness raised. This paper estimates the immediate and long-term effects of COVID-19 on air transport markets and forecasts timescales for recovery of the markets for domestic and international flights in nine African countries. Intervention analysis and SARIMAX are employed for the analysis, using monthly time-series data from August 2003 to December 2021. The empirical results show that air transport is significantly elastic to the pandemic. It is forecast that air transport recovery may take around 28 months for domestic flights and 34 months for international flights, starting from 2020. The simulation analysis suggests that passenger flights may rebound to pre-crisis levels between 2022 and 2023. In general, the pandemic-induced fluctuations in the aviation market and the nature of the rebound may be considered to be part of a cyclical process rather than a structural change. Keywords: air transport, COVID-19, Africa, aviation recovery

• Takele, Tesfaye B & Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2021). Optimal transit corridors for Ethiopia. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management. ISSN 2310-8789. 15, s. 1–11. doi: 10.4102/jtscm.v15i0.567. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background: Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea, a former province, gained independence. Its imports and exports by sea are now sent via neighbouring coastal states, mainly Djibouti, and it needs to ensure sustainable access to multiple transit corridors. Objective: This article aims to evaluate alternative transit corridors to Ethiopia in terms of basic port infrastructure, and logistics costs. The findings provide insights to inform policy on securing reliable maritime access to the country. Method: This study adopts a case study approach by using secondary data to evaluate alternative transit corridors. Following a critical review of theoretical and empirical literature, descriptive statistics are presented using tables, graphs and charts. Results: Low-cost, high-capacity and high-frequency global maritime freight trade is easier through Djibouti than through Mombasa in Kenya or Port Sudan, owing to its better liner shipping connectivity. Thus, Ethiopia should continue to import containerised cargo through the Port of Djibouti. However, direct access to the sea is also important for national defence and security. Conclusion: Ethiopia should therefore secure access through multiple ports to safeguard national security, regardless of economic feasibility. This can be realised by directing break-bulk, dry bulk and petroleum products through ports in Sudan and Kenya. In addition, particular emphasis should be given to seaports closest to the country’s economic centre, such as Berbera in Somaliland and Asseb and Massawa in Eritrea. Keywords: landlocked; transit corridor; infrastructure development; container shipping; dry bulk shipping; logistics cost.

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Eric, Tchouamou Njoya; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2021). Effects of African aviation liberalisation on economic freedom, air connectivity and related economic consequences. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 110(September), s. 204–214. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.06.002. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article investigates the effects of air transport liberalisation on economic freedom and air connectivity, and the extended effects on economic development. A PLS path modelling estimator, applied to annual data for 52 countries over the period 2011–2019, shows that aviation liberalisation promotes economic freedom and improves air connectivity. The results also reveal that the economic contribution of air transport liberalisation varies across African countries and regions, relative to their levels of economic freedom and air connectivity. It is concluded that removing barriers to trade using air transport, combined with institutions that support economic freedom and the quality of air connectivity, may foster countries’ economic development. Keywords: liberalisation, economic freedom, air connectivity, economic development, Africa

• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera; Bråthen, Svein & Holmgren, Johan (2020). Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality. Journal of Transport Geography. ISSN 0966-6923. 86(June), s. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102771. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub. Keywords: air transport demand, economic development, cointegration, causality analysis, sub-Saharan Africa

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• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Njoya, Eric Tchouamou (2023). Determinants of domestic air travel demand in African countries.
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2023). The state of Africa's air transport market amid COVID-19, and forecasts for recovery.
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2020). Effects of aviation liberalisation and levels of democracy on air connectivity and related economic consequences : evidence from Africa.
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Bråthen, Svein (2018). The link between air transport demand and economic growth in South Africa.
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera & Bråthen, Svein (2018). Air transport demand and economic growth in Ethiopia.
• Tolcha, Tassew Dufera (2022). Essays on air transport and economic development: Cases from African countries. Molde University College - Specialized University in Logistics. ISSN 978-82-7962-320-5.

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